Saturday, 9 April 2011

Grand National Betting

Choosing a winner from the 40 entrants into the Grand National can be a daunting task but if you take into account statistics from previous winners it can give you an idea of which horses have the required qualities to get around the track.

Generally the winner will be aged between 8-12 so you can rule out the younger and older horses and even trim the bracket to 8-10.

Weight is very important, the winner will normally be carrying 11 stone 5lb or under but I would go even further and cap the weights at 11 stone.

The distance needs to be taken in account as some horses won't be up to the challenge of the 4 mile 4 furlong course, make sure your horse has run over 3 miles before and preferably won as well.

Other characteristics from past winners see them with a handicap rating above 135, run in at least ten chases and won a chase worth at least £17,000.

After analysing this data and looking at the form of the horses I have four top picks. Oscar Time looks good at 14/1, I would expect him to be backed big and to go out as one of the favourites. I like the look of Silver by Nature but he would prefer soft ground so my top pick would be Ballabriggs who is available at around 16/1. I also have a soft spot for Calgary Bay who would be a decent each way bet.

Friday, 1 April 2011

Football Prediction League

I went looking for a selection of knowledgeable football fans to take part in a football prediction league which ultimately would lead to tips generated from a collective group rather than one individual. I was unable to find the knowledgeable fans I seeked so instead for week one I have called upon a few friends to give their predictions. I selected 10 games from Saturday and each was asked to predict home win, away win or draw.

Below will give you an idea of the most popular selections for the weekend.

(0%) West Ham vs (57%) Manchester Utd - Draw (43%)
(29%) Everton vs (14%) Aston Villa - Draw (57%)
(57%) Newcastle
vs (14%) Wolves - Draw (29%)
(0%) Stoke City vs (86%) Chelsea - Draw (14%)
(14%) West Brom vs (57%) Liverpool - Draw (29%)
(14%) Wigan vs (57%) Tottenham - Draw (29%)
(43%) Middlesbrough vs (57%) Leicester - Draw (0%)
(86%) Leeds vs (0%) Nottingham Forest - Draw (14%)
(42%) Swindon vs (29%) Hartlepool - Draw (29%)
(57%) Burton vs (29%) Barnet - Draw (14%)

After the games on Saturday each tipsters hit rate will be published to start off the Betsave prediction league.

Monday, 28 March 2011

Premier League Relegation Battle

Much of the talk is usually about the premiership title race but we are going to take a look at the other end of the table to review the odds on the closest relegation battle for many years. Atleast 12 clubs are far from safe with 9th place Sunderland only 6 points ahead of 18th placed Wolves.

Wolves 15/8
Are surely one of the favourites to go down but their results against the big clubs have kept them in the fight. The signing of Jamie O'Hara was a great addition which will see them fight it to the end but their lack of results against the teams around them will be their downfall.

Wigan Athletic 2/5
They have some talented players but I feel they lack the spirit to combat a tough relegation battle. Wigan aren't really a team who can dig deep an if it weren't for the ocassional brilliance from the likes of N'Zogbia an Rodallega they would already be gone.I'm afraid their premiership tenure may be about to come to an end.

West Brom Albion 13/8
They were on a slippery slope but with the Roy Hodgson factor they may just about be able to escape. Having said that Di Matteo was wrongly sacked and should have been given time to finish what he had started. The Di Matteo singings are likely to be the difference if they do stay up.

Birmingham City 13/8
It's a surprise to see Birmingham in the bottom three for so long this season. Their squad has improved an they've been great in the cup but it's come at the cost of their league form. If they don't pick up some wins in the next few games alarm bells could ring even louder but I expect them to do enough.

West Ham United 13/8
They look like a different team to the one which were stuck at the bottom of the league. Hitzlsperger an Demba Ba coming into the team has been the catalyst to their climb out of the bottom three an as long as they can stay clear of an injury epidemic I'd expect the hammers to survive.

Fulham 14/1
They play like a team that is not in trouble and just about seem to keep heads above water. I think there will be more of the same as Mark Hughes side have proven to be difficult to beat an should get enough points at the Cottage to ensure another season in the premiership.

Aston Villa 7/1
Villa are an interesting one as they have enough talent to be pushing for European places but don't seem to be clicking under Gerard Houllier. I expect Villa to stay up, he may not have been worth his pricetag but goals win you games and in Darren Bent they have someone who pretty much guarentees them.

Newcastle United 14/1
It's been a season of ups an downs for Newcastle who must have been worried when their top scorer left leaving Leon Best to take on the goalscoring duties. Rather surprisingly he duly obliged but the goals have dried up which again raises concerns. However I saw enough in their comeback aginst Arsenal to suggest they have enough fight in them to survive and players like Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan will bring the grit and determination required.

Blackpool 6/5
Can the tangerines finish the fairytale with premiership survival? They play with no fear and are capable of grabbing a result both home or away so who knows what other surprises they have in store.

Blackburn Rovers 2/1
Blackburn are now struggling and Steve Kean is by far the most likely manager to next get the sack and that is where it becomes difficult to predict where they will end up. Keep Steve Kean and I think they could be in big trouble but I'd guess that the board will soon lose patience so it will be all down to whoever they pick as their next manager.

Sunderland 66/1
They've had a pretty good season but a dip in form and suddenly they are a couple defeats away from the relegation zone despite being in what would usually be a comfortable 9th spot. I don't see them sliding any further into trouble and if they do they will have enough about them to stay up.

Stoke City 22/1
If anyone is going to slip from mid table I can see it being Stoke however the amount of goals they score from set pieces and the 5 point advantage they already have should be enough. However if you're looking for a longer shot I can see Stoke being the place to put your money.

It's a tough call but I'm going for Wigan, Wolves and Blackpool to face the drop this season but I'd expect a few twists and turns along the way.

The odds are courtesy of Paddy Power on 31/03/2011

Thursday, 17 March 2011

Europa League Betting

Liverpool v Braga

Liverpool looked like grabbing a goal in the first leg and were a lot more threatening once Andy Carrol came on. With the Kop behind them i'd expect Liverpool to win the game.

Manchester City v Dynamo Kiev

This could be a tough one as Dynamo sprung a surprise in the 1st leg. With a 2-0 advantage they can even afford to lose this match and progress so i'd still tip City to win the game but not sure whether that will be enough to put them through.

Rangers v PSV

0-0 in the first leaves this tie very open. Home advantage for Rangers will be a huge factor but a score draw will be enough for PSV, either way it's going to be a close one. I'm going for 1-0 Rangers or 1-1.

Cheltenham Festival Day 3

Just a quick update, I had Noble Prince in the first race which came in at around 5/1.

Here are my current other selections for the days racing

2.05 - Lush Life
2.40 - Poquelin
3.20 - Big Bucks, Mourad outside bet

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Cheltenham Festival Day 2

My tip of the day would be to back Time for Rupert in the 2.40. Wymott will be the main danger.

I like the look of So Young in the 2.05 but also feel First Liuetenant has a chance at more appealing odds.

The big race of the day at 3.20 is going to be tough to call, I'm going to keep an eye on the betting for this one before choosing who to back closer to the race.

Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Football Tonight

Here are a few picks from tonight's fixtures.

Burnley v Coventry - Burnley to win

Burnley will be looking to bounce back after their winning streak came to an abrupt end on Saturday. Coventry are now managerless and an away trip to Burnley is probably the last thing they would want.

Ipswich Town v Watford - Ipswich to win

Ipswich have been making great progress under Paul Jewell and have some quality experienced players.

Man United v Marseille - Man United to win

United should be able to overcome Marseille especially with Nani back in the team. Marseille couldn't grab a goal at home and are likely to be less of a threat today.

Cheltenham Festival Day 1

At the time of writing I have had a win in the first race after a lay on the favourite Cue Card. However I fancied Spirit's Son to take the first race so his second place finish has scuppered the chances of my treble.

I've also backed Captain Chris in the 2.05 while I'm hoping to see this amazing turn of foot that Hurrican Fly allegedly has at his disposal in the 3.20.

That will be all for today's racing as we have plenty more to get through this week!

Saturday, 12 March 2011

Weekend's Football Tips

Football League

Burnley v Millwall - Burnley to win

Burnley have won 5 of their last 6 games under Eddie Howe who has continued to grow his reputaion as one of the best up and coming young managers in the game. Millwall had a great win over QPR in the week but Burnley are strong and compact especially at Turf Moor so i'm predicting a home win.

Scunthorpe v Leicester City - Leicester City to win

Leicester have not won in their last four while Scunthorpe have hit some form at home but still struggle away. The strength of the Leicester squad should mean that their winless run can't continue so i'm going for an away win.

Brighton v Tranmere Rovers - Brighton to win

Brighton have won 5 of their last 6 while Tranmere have won none. Brighton are unbelievably strong at home so this one is shaping up to be a home banker.

Peterborough United v Carlisle

Peterborough are on fire at the moment under Darren Ferguson so i'm tipping them to continue their fine form.

Gillingham v Accrington Stanley - Gillingham to win

Gillingham are proving difficult to beat but are drawing too many games otherwise they would be in the mix for the automatic promotion places. Accrington Stanley have had a surpisingly good season after being one of the favourites for relegation but I can't see them finishing any higher than mid-table while Gillingham can win this game to keep them in the hunt for promotion.

Wycombe v Stevenage - Wycombe to win

This is another promotion hunting team against a club who are probably happy with their current position in the middle of the table. With Wycombe having more to play for and home advantage i'd expect them to get the 3 points.


F.A Cup

Birmingham v Bolton Wanderers - Bolton to win

Birmingham have proven themselves to be a cup team after their Carling cup win and this run to the quarter finals of the F.A Cup. They however are in big trouble in the league which must now be their focus while Bolton are having a great season which could be topped off with a trip a wembley. I'm going for Bolton to win a place in the semi's.

Manchester United v Arsenal - Manchester United to win

This could well be the tie of the round and mainly due to their home advantage I'm going for Man United to squeeze past Arsenal who will be left fighting only for the league title after playing for 4 trophies just a couple of weeks ago.

Stoke City v West Ham United - West Ham to win

This could well be a tight game with Stoke being tough to beat at home but West Ham have hit some good form while Avram Grant knows a thing or two about getting to the F.A cup final. I wouldn't rule out a draw but I think West Ham will have the better of Stoke once again.

Manchester City v Reading - Manchester City to win

Reading have done wonders to get this far and had they drawn City at the Madejski things could be different but I can only see a win for Manchester City in this one.

Thursday, 10 March 2011

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Horse Laying Project Day 1

I started my experiment of backing short odds favourites to lose and have so far had mixed results. To dip my toes into the world of lay betting I decided to do three £5 wagers on clear favourites with Betfair.

First up was Laneguy followed by Indian Groom who both failed to be placed which meant I was up £10 quite quickly. At this point I was thinking I had found a second income and pondering whether I should start increasing my stake.

However the problem when you lay a bet is when you get it wrong the outcome is more costly as I found when Midnight Appeal romped home in the 3.35pm at Wincanton. From the initial £5 stake I had infact lost £9.20.

So day 1 of the experiment leaves me with a total profit of 3o pence. I guess it could be worse... watch this space.

To see the original Horse Laying post click here

Europa League Betting

I'm not normally big on Europa League betting as some clubs take it more seriously than others so at times you never quite know what your going to get. I've added my thoughts on tonight's games involving British clubs.

Braga v Liverpool

Braga have a decent side while Liverpool are fresh from another great victory over the weekend. I'd expect Liverpool to prevail over the two legs but can see this tie being a draw as they will look to keep it tight.

Dynamo Kiev v Manchester City

City have not performed particuarly well away from home in Europe so again even though I feel they will have the better of Kiev over two legs it's tough to call how this will go. However I'm going to go for City to win a close encounter.

PSV v Rangers

Rangers have had a good run and got a great result in Lisbon in the last round but I'm tipping PSV to win this one. They are top of the dutch league and Rangers tend not to travel too well in Europe so I can only see this going one way.

First Bet in the Horse Laying Project

The Horse Laying project which I previously posted about has now started. I've decided to start small by laying £5 on Midnight Appeal in the 3.25 at Wincanton with a potential liability of £9.20.

Midnight Appeal is the clear 15/8 favourite after winning his last race but I feel there are suitable threats while his previous 4 outings before his win saw him fail to finish above seventh.

So I stand to win £5 or lose £9.20, with my previous track record on horse betting choosing a loser should be easy!

I'll now add to this post as I've layed two more races today! Laneguy the favourite in the 2pm at Wincanton and Indian Groom who is odds on in the 3.15 at Carlisle. Both are such strong favourites that I only stand to lose just over £6 on each with a stake of £5 if they were to win. If they lose then I will ofcourse double up.

Overall today I have invested potentially £22.50 if all three were to win so fingers crossed these favourites lose!

To see the original Horse Laying Project post click here

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

Tottenham v AC Milan

I'm backing Tottenham all the way tonight I don't think Milan will be able to cope with the tempo that Spurs will play at home. As long as Tottenham go out to play for the win rather than holding out for a draw than I firmly believe they will see off Milan with relative ease. Most people will think it foolish to write off a top side like Milan but Italian football is just not as strong as it once was and that will be even more clear after tonight.

Post Match Analysis

Not the win or easy result I had predicted but Spurs still made it through at the expense of Milan. If you were not as bold/wrong as me and went for Tottenham to go through rather than win on the night then well done to you!

Monday, 7 March 2011

The Horse Laying Project

This is more of an experiment that I will be attempting for the first time so i'm not sure how well this will go but I thought it would be worthwhile to share my experiences whether it be good or bad!

The idea is to pick favourites at short odds in horse races where I think they will lose. I will lay the favourite in that particular race and if they lose will then double my money. If they win then unfortunately I will have lost but as a favourite the odds I will need to pay out on should be relatively low.

I'm going to be committing £50 to the project with the stake likely to range from £5-£10 for each race. Betfair are the best bookmaker when it comes to laying so i'll be using my account with them for all bets placed.

New post coming soon of the first bet I will be making as part of this project!


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Blackpool v Chelsea

Just a quick post before the Blackpool v Chelsea game starts. I'm inclined to go for the outright Chelsea win but that has little value and i'm hoping to see Blackpool make a game of it. Whether Blackpool are in the game or are slaughtered the one thing this game should guarentee is goals so i'm thinking 4+ goals is a good bet!

Saturday, 5 March 2011

Today's Football Tips

West Ham v Stoke City - West Ham to win

West Ham have hit a bit of form and in Demba Ba they seem to have found a top class goalscorer. Stoke are strong at home but I can see them getting dragged into the relegation scrap due to their negative style of play.

Leeds United v Doncaster - Leeds to win

Leeds are in the promotin hunt while Doncaster are sliding down the table fast. Should be an easy home win.

Scunthorpe v Swansea - Swansea to win

Scunthorpe quite simply are not good enough for the division and will be relegated even if they spring the odd surprise result. Swansea have been impressive and have enough goalscorers in their team to see off Scunthorpe.

Colchester v Southampton - Southampton to win

This is a tricky one but with the players they have I expect Southampton to go on a winning run to push for one of the automatic promotion spots.

Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth - Sheffield Wednesday to win

Sheffield Wednesday have been one of the biggest underacheivers of the season but Plymouth are in even more trouble so this should be a home banker.

Peterborough v Exeter - Peterborough to win

Peterborough get goals and although they tend to concede as well I still expect them to beat Exeter who have dipped in form.

Post Match Analysis

4 out of 6 of this week's tips came in but unfortunately Plymouth sprung a surprise with a 4-2 away win against Sheffield Wednesday who continue to struggle to find form. Scunthorpe got a great win against Swansea but I still stick to my earlier point that regardless of the result today they will still be in the bottom three come the end of the season.

On the plus note the West Ham tip came in with Demba Ba scoring the first goal while Leeds eventually cruised to a 5-2 win over Doncaster. Southampton got a good away win at Colchester while free scoring Peterborough even managed to keep a clean sheet as they eased to a 3-0 win over Exeter.

Not too bad for week one but must improve on the 60% ratio of successful tips that we saw this week.

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Football Accumalator Commandments

A football accumalator is usually an enticing bet with the potential for massive winnings from a small stake. It's easy to get carried away with the possible winnings taking focus away from your thought process.

With this in mind here are a few points to remember before placing an accumalator bet.

1. Don't bet on your own team - Whether it's Manchester United or Hereford United your love for your own team will cloud your judgment.

2. Steer clear of short odds - If you are going to put an accumaltor together don't be tempted to throw in that 1/10 'dead cert' who could well ruin the whole bet for the sake of adding a couple extra pounds to the winnings.

3. Limit the number of teams - It's simple the more teams you add into the an accumalator increases your chances of one losing.

4. Don't chase money - If you are chasing a certain amount of winnings then it becomes a lottery as you will end up picking any teams you possibly can to reach your target. Stick to predicting games you are confident about and don't be tempted to add others to get increase the winnings.

5. Get the best odds - With free bets and a number of good online bookmakers available it's easy to have multiple accounts. If you are going to use your hard earned cash make sure you are going to receive the maximum return if your bet comes off.

Follow these simple rules and add a bit of football knowledge into the mix and your sure to be onto a winner.

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