Choosing a winner from the 40 entrants into the Grand National can be a daunting task but if you take into account statistics from previous winners it can give you an idea of which horses have the required qualities to get around the track.
Generally the winner will be aged between 8-12 so you can rule out the younger and older horses and even trim the bracket to 8-10.
Weight is very important, the winner will normally be carrying 11 stone 5lb or under but I would go even further and cap the weights at 11 stone.
The distance needs to be taken in account as some horses won't be up to the challenge of the 4 mile 4 furlong course, make sure your horse has run over 3 miles before and preferably won as well.
Other characteristics from past winners see them with a handicap rating above 135, run in at least ten chases and won a chase worth at least £17,000.
After analysing this data and looking at the form of the horses I have four top picks. Oscar Time looks good at 14/1, I would expect him to be backed big and to go out as one of the favourites. I like the look of Silver by Nature but he would prefer soft ground so my top pick would be Ballabriggs who is available at around 16/1. I also have a soft spot for Calgary Bay who would be a decent each way bet.
Saturday, 9 April 2011
Friday, 1 April 2011
Football Prediction League
I went looking for a selection of knowledgeable football fans to take part in a football prediction league which ultimately would lead to tips generated from a collective group rather than one individual. I was unable to find the knowledgeable fans I seeked so instead for week one I have called upon a few friends to give their predictions. I selected 10 games from Saturday and each was asked to predict home win, away win or draw.
Below will give you an idea of the most popular selections for the weekend.
(0%) West Ham vs (57%) Manchester Utd - Draw (43%)
(29%) Everton vs (14%) Aston Villa - Draw (57%)
(57%) Newcastle vs (14%) Wolves - Draw (29%)
(0%) Stoke City vs (86%) Chelsea - Draw (14%)
(14%) West Brom vs (57%) Liverpool - Draw (29%)
(14%) Wigan vs (57%) Tottenham - Draw (29%)
(43%) Middlesbrough vs (57%) Leicester - Draw (0%)
(86%) Leeds vs (0%) Nottingham Forest - Draw (14%)
(42%) Swindon vs (29%) Hartlepool - Draw (29%)
(57%) Burton vs (29%) Barnet - Draw (14%)
After the games on Saturday each tipsters hit rate will be published to start off the Betsave prediction league.
Below will give you an idea of the most popular selections for the weekend.
(0%) West Ham vs (57%) Manchester Utd - Draw (43%)
(29%) Everton vs (14%) Aston Villa - Draw (57%)
(57%) Newcastle vs (14%) Wolves - Draw (29%)
(0%) Stoke City vs (86%) Chelsea - Draw (14%)
(14%) West Brom vs (57%) Liverpool - Draw (29%)
(14%) Wigan vs (57%) Tottenham - Draw (29%)
(43%) Middlesbrough vs (57%) Leicester - Draw (0%)
(86%) Leeds vs (0%) Nottingham Forest - Draw (14%)
(42%) Swindon vs (29%) Hartlepool - Draw (29%)
(57%) Burton vs (29%) Barnet - Draw (14%)
After the games on Saturday each tipsters hit rate will be published to start off the Betsave prediction league.
Monday, 28 March 2011
Premier League Relegation Battle
Much of the talk is usually about the premiership title race but we are going to take a look at the other end of the table to review the odds on the closest relegation battle for many years. Atleast 12 clubs are far from safe with 9th place Sunderland only 6 points ahead of 18th placed Wolves.
Wolves 15/8
Are surely one of the favourites to go down but their results against the big clubs have kept them in the fight. The signing of Jamie O'Hara was a great addition which will see them fight it to the end but their lack of results against the teams around them will be their downfall.
Wigan Athletic 2/5
They have some talented players but I feel they lack the spirit to combat a tough relegation battle. Wigan aren't really a team who can dig deep an if it weren't for the ocassional brilliance from the likes of N'Zogbia an Rodallega they would already be gone.I'm afraid their premiership tenure may be about to come to an end.
West Brom Albion 13/8
They were on a slippery slope but with the Roy Hodgson factor they may just about be able to escape. Having said that Di Matteo was wrongly sacked and should have been given time to finish what he had started. The Di Matteo singings are likely to be the difference if they do stay up.
Birmingham City 13/8
It's a surprise to see Birmingham in the bottom three for so long this season. Their squad has improved an they've been great in the cup but it's come at the cost of their league form. If they don't pick up some wins in the next few games alarm bells could ring even louder but I expect them to do enough.
West Ham United 13/8
They look like a different team to the one which were stuck at the bottom of the league. Hitzlsperger an Demba Ba coming into the team has been the catalyst to their climb out of the bottom three an as long as they can stay clear of an injury epidemic I'd expect the hammers to survive.
Fulham 14/1
They play like a team that is not in trouble and just about seem to keep heads above water. I think there will be more of the same as Mark Hughes side have proven to be difficult to beat an should get enough points at the Cottage to ensure another season in the premiership.
Aston Villa 7/1
Villa are an interesting one as they have enough talent to be pushing for European places but don't seem to be clicking under Gerard Houllier. I expect Villa to stay up, he may not have been worth his pricetag but goals win you games and in Darren Bent they have someone who pretty much guarentees them.
Newcastle United 14/1
It's been a season of ups an downs for Newcastle who must have been worried when their top scorer left leaving Leon Best to take on the goalscoring duties. Rather surprisingly he duly obliged but the goals have dried up which again raises concerns. However I saw enough in their comeback aginst Arsenal to suggest they have enough fight in them to survive and players like Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan will bring the grit and determination required.
Blackpool 6/5
Can the tangerines finish the fairytale with premiership survival? They play with no fear and are capable of grabbing a result both home or away so who knows what other surprises they have in store.
Blackburn Rovers 2/1
Blackburn are now struggling and Steve Kean is by far the most likely manager to next get the sack and that is where it becomes difficult to predict where they will end up. Keep Steve Kean and I think they could be in big trouble but I'd guess that the board will soon lose patience so it will be all down to whoever they pick as their next manager.
Sunderland 66/1
They've had a pretty good season but a dip in form and suddenly they are a couple defeats away from the relegation zone despite being in what would usually be a comfortable 9th spot. I don't see them sliding any further into trouble and if they do they will have enough about them to stay up.
Stoke City 22/1
If anyone is going to slip from mid table I can see it being Stoke however the amount of goals they score from set pieces and the 5 point advantage they already have should be enough. However if you're looking for a longer shot I can see Stoke being the place to put your money.
It's a tough call but I'm going for Wigan, Wolves and Blackpool to face the drop this season but I'd expect a few twists and turns along the way.
The odds are courtesy of Paddy Power on 31/03/2011
Wolves 15/8
Are surely one of the favourites to go down but their results against the big clubs have kept them in the fight. The signing of Jamie O'Hara was a great addition which will see them fight it to the end but their lack of results against the teams around them will be their downfall.
Wigan Athletic 2/5
They have some talented players but I feel they lack the spirit to combat a tough relegation battle. Wigan aren't really a team who can dig deep an if it weren't for the ocassional brilliance from the likes of N'Zogbia an Rodallega they would already be gone.I'm afraid their premiership tenure may be about to come to an end.
West Brom Albion 13/8
They were on a slippery slope but with the Roy Hodgson factor they may just about be able to escape. Having said that Di Matteo was wrongly sacked and should have been given time to finish what he had started. The Di Matteo singings are likely to be the difference if they do stay up.
Birmingham City 13/8
It's a surprise to see Birmingham in the bottom three for so long this season. Their squad has improved an they've been great in the cup but it's come at the cost of their league form. If they don't pick up some wins in the next few games alarm bells could ring even louder but I expect them to do enough.
West Ham United 13/8
They look like a different team to the one which were stuck at the bottom of the league. Hitzlsperger an Demba Ba coming into the team has been the catalyst to their climb out of the bottom three an as long as they can stay clear of an injury epidemic I'd expect the hammers to survive.
Fulham 14/1
They play like a team that is not in trouble and just about seem to keep heads above water. I think there will be more of the same as Mark Hughes side have proven to be difficult to beat an should get enough points at the Cottage to ensure another season in the premiership.
Aston Villa 7/1
Villa are an interesting one as they have enough talent to be pushing for European places but don't seem to be clicking under Gerard Houllier. I expect Villa to stay up, he may not have been worth his pricetag but goals win you games and in Darren Bent they have someone who pretty much guarentees them.
Newcastle United 14/1
It's been a season of ups an downs for Newcastle who must have been worried when their top scorer left leaving Leon Best to take on the goalscoring duties. Rather surprisingly he duly obliged but the goals have dried up which again raises concerns. However I saw enough in their comeback aginst Arsenal to suggest they have enough fight in them to survive and players like Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan will bring the grit and determination required.
Blackpool 6/5
Can the tangerines finish the fairytale with premiership survival? They play with no fear and are capable of grabbing a result both home or away so who knows what other surprises they have in store.
Blackburn Rovers 2/1
Blackburn are now struggling and Steve Kean is by far the most likely manager to next get the sack and that is where it becomes difficult to predict where they will end up. Keep Steve Kean and I think they could be in big trouble but I'd guess that the board will soon lose patience so it will be all down to whoever they pick as their next manager.
Sunderland 66/1
They've had a pretty good season but a dip in form and suddenly they are a couple defeats away from the relegation zone despite being in what would usually be a comfortable 9th spot. I don't see them sliding any further into trouble and if they do they will have enough about them to stay up.
Stoke City 22/1
If anyone is going to slip from mid table I can see it being Stoke however the amount of goals they score from set pieces and the 5 point advantage they already have should be enough. However if you're looking for a longer shot I can see Stoke being the place to put your money.
It's a tough call but I'm going for Wigan, Wolves and Blackpool to face the drop this season but I'd expect a few twists and turns along the way.
The odds are courtesy of Paddy Power on 31/03/2011
Thursday, 17 March 2011
Europa League Betting
Liverpool v Braga
Liverpool looked like grabbing a goal in the first leg and were a lot more threatening once Andy Carrol came on. With the Kop behind them i'd expect Liverpool to win the game.
Manchester City v Dynamo Kiev
This could be a tough one as Dynamo sprung a surprise in the 1st leg. With a 2-0 advantage they can even afford to lose this match and progress so i'd still tip City to win the game but not sure whether that will be enough to put them through.
Rangers v PSV
0-0 in the first leaves this tie very open. Home advantage for Rangers will be a huge factor but a score draw will be enough for PSV, either way it's going to be a close one. I'm going for 1-0 Rangers or 1-1.
Liverpool looked like grabbing a goal in the first leg and were a lot more threatening once Andy Carrol came on. With the Kop behind them i'd expect Liverpool to win the game.
Manchester City v Dynamo Kiev
This could be a tough one as Dynamo sprung a surprise in the 1st leg. With a 2-0 advantage they can even afford to lose this match and progress so i'd still tip City to win the game but not sure whether that will be enough to put them through.
Rangers v PSV
0-0 in the first leaves this tie very open. Home advantage for Rangers will be a huge factor but a score draw will be enough for PSV, either way it's going to be a close one. I'm going for 1-0 Rangers or 1-1.
Cheltenham Festival Day 3
Just a quick update, I had Noble Prince in the first race which came in at around 5/1.
Here are my current other selections for the days racing
2.05 - Lush Life
2.40 - Poquelin
3.20 - Big Bucks, Mourad outside bet
Here are my current other selections for the days racing
2.05 - Lush Life
2.40 - Poquelin
3.20 - Big Bucks, Mourad outside bet
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